How Many Points Do Arsenal Need to Gather in Order to Hope for the Title?

As soon as the previous season in the Premier League ended, which was a month ago, a new one has already started in the novel circumstances. The new season in England began with the traditional match between the champions and the winners of the FA Cup. In the battle for the Community Shield trophy against Liverpool at the cult Wembley, Arsenal showed their fans the contours of what can be expected of them in 2020/21.

In the overture of the beginning of the Premier League, scheduled for September 12, both teams fought for the 16th trophy of the competition, once known as the Charity Shield, in the club’s history. Given that both teams were deprived of the services of several important players (Arsenal lacked Calum Chambers, Shkodran Mustafi, and Gabriel Martinelli), the win over the champions weighs tones.

The rivals commanded by Jürgen Klopp and Mikel Arteta had the last faceoff prior to the Community Shield in mid-July, when ‘The Gunners’ prevailed by a 2-1, thanks to the goals of Alexandre Lacazette and Reiss Nelson after the turnaround. Although the victory on Wembley came after the penalty shootout, it’s counted as the second in a row against the reigning champions and heats up the title hopes of the Arsenal fans…

Arsenal’s ‘Invincibles’ Created a New Breed of Title-Winners

Given that the encounter for the first trophy in the season happened so close to the start of the 2020/21 Premier League, it has to be stressed what chances do Arsenal have to be at the top of the table by the end of May next year. More importantly, do ‘The Gunners’ need to adopt a specific pace in the season? Of course, winning the FA Cup in the post-corona part of the last season, followed by the win in the Community Shield, showed a glimpse of hope for the title battle…

Actually, the study showed that exactly the way Arsenal won the championship, 16 years ago, pointed out to all the teams in the Premier League what rhythm of playing is necessary to set in order to get crowned. Some think that the arrival of José Mourinho at Chelsea was the turning point in the way titles are won, given that he was a supporter of a fast start of the season when a club has title aspirations, numbers say that in reality, the Arsenal’s ‘Invincibles’ are the new breed of title-winners.

‘The Gunners’ led from the front in 2003/04, tallying 24 points in the first 10 games of the season which was, at the time, the second-highest point tally at that point of the season in the Premier League history. At the end of the season, Arsenal had 90 points – also the second-highest score at the time, this time in the total points tally.

Is the Statistical Margin Achievable for ‘The Gunners’?

Since then, a 10-game margin became highly important. The study says that prior to 2003, the average points tally of eventual champions was 20.8. After that, it turned out it was necessary to collect 24 points on average in the first 10 rounds to hope to win the title. Until 2003, the average placement on the charts of eventual champions in the first 10 games was 2.5. Now, every placement lower than the second place in the first quarter of the season means a farewell to the championship.

What about qualifying for the Champions League? When the Premier League’s ‘Big Four’ turned into the ‘Top Six’ (and Arsenal is, of course, in both) in 2010, the teams falling into this crème de la crème of English football were to flex their muscles from the day one in the season to finish in the top four and advance to Europe’s most elite competition.

Ever since, there have been 14 points tallies of 25+ after 10 matches, compared to three beforehand. It showed how much harder it has become to even be in contention for a top-four spot after 10 games, let alone secure one by the end of the season.

Statistically, if Arsenal want to secure at least the fourth place in the table on May 23, they have to earn slightly above 19 points in the first 10 games. Before 2010, it was easier to clinch the fourth place given that a team aiming for that had to collect 18.1 points on average. 




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